Real GDP in Saudi Arabia is expected to grow at 3.6 per cent and 3.4 per cent for 2013 and 2014, respectively. NBK also sees real non-oil GDP declining by one per cent in 2013 and two per cent the year after. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to rise to a moderate, if manageable, five per cent in 2013 and 2014.
The Saudi economic environment has benefited from high oil prices and production, as well as a surge in government infrastructure spending and public sector wage growth. These will continue to generate solid growth going forward. However, while the economy still has considerable near-term momentum, longer-term growth prospects depend upon enhancing the role of the private sector through structural reforms. In addition, rising government spending and a continued reliance upon oil revenues have focused attention on the government’s fiscal position, which the IMF predicts could move into deficit by 2017.
NBK said, “As oil prices have softened, Saudi Arabia’s oil output has eased back from its mid-year highs. Crude oil production stood at 9.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) in November, down from 9.9 mbpd in June. Barring a major global downturn, we expect Saudi Arabia to remain comfortable with oil prices at around $100 per barrel (pb) – well above the kingdom’s likely budget breakeven oil price for the next couple of years. This should imply only gradual declines in Saudi oil output as the authorities attempt to balance a slightly looser global oil market. Following two successive years of increases, real oil-GDP is seen declining by one per cent in 2013 and two per cent the year after.
Read more: http://www.gulfbase.com/news/saudi-economic-growth-3-6-per-cent-in-2013-3-4-per-cent-in-2014/228612
No comments:
Post a Comment